A strong Western Disturbance is going to affect Jammu and Kashmir between 18 & 20 February. Under its influence moderate to very heavy rain and snowfall is expected in most parts of the Union Territory.
Initially, there will be only rain in plains, which may transform into snowfall on 18th evening or on 19th Feb (for some plains only). The maximum chances of snowfall are in north Kashmir.
For central and south Kashmir plains it seems that rains will dominate. However, a continuous heavy spell of rain has always the potential of transforming into snowfall due to evaporational cooling. So, early snowfall can’t be ruled out completely.
Predicting an exact amount of snowfall is uncertain for any place. However, here are the chances of snowfall for
North Kashmir: 65% (snow can occur in the evening of 18th or the next day).
Central Kashmir: 40% (snow can occur on 18th evening or 19th provided heavy spell of rain continues, same scenario applicable for 20th).
South Kashmir: 50% (snow can occur on 18th evening or 19th provided heavy spell of rain continues, same scenario applicable for 20th).
Snowfall that will occur will be higher in density and its accumulation has the potential of causing damage.
In upper reaches of north Kashmir, three day snow accumulation can range from 2 to 7 feet.
For central and south Kashmir higher reaches, snow accumulation can range from 1 foot to 5 feet.
Shooting stones and Landslides are very likely to occur along Jammu-Srinagar National Highway. Disruptions can be there. So it is advisable to postpone your journey between 18 – 21st Feb.
Forecast Insights: ‘Kashmir Weather’
