NFL draft’s 50* biggest busts of the last 50 years: Jets QB Zach Wilson rates high among infamous

NFL draft’s 50* biggest busts of the last 50 years: Jets QB Zach Wilson rates high among infamous

Mujtaba Turi

The NFL’s 88th annual draft, aka its “Player Selection Meeting,” will kick off next week in Kansas City, Missouri.

And while the event has proven a lottery ticket of talent procurement for some franchises (Steelers, 49ers) through the years, for others (Jets, Buccaneers), it’s been an infuriating shell game.

This draft marks the, well, unremarkable 50th anniversary of the Houston Oilers’ selection of the late John Matuszak No. 1 overall in 1973 … when eventual Hall of Famers John Hannah and Dan Fouts were among several superior alternatives. And while Matuszak won’t make our list of the 50 hugest busts of all time, it seemed like a pretty good juncture to reflect on the guys who rate as history’s biggest deterrents to playing the draft lottery over the past half-century.

Some words about the methodology: This ranking and analysis are certainly interspersed with opinion. But I tried not to view these wayward picks in a vacuum – taking into account what teams sacrificed to take a player, either in terms of trade currency or whom they opted not to select, when evaluating each bust. Some deals themselves are included since many prevented teams from choosing superior options. Naturally, extra weight was given to quarterback gaffes.

Lastly, I tried to have some fun and creativity in select spots to keep you (and me) engaged, so try not to get too bent out of shape if that defensive tackle or tight end your team took in the top 10 before he petered out didn’t warrant a mention.

1. QB Ryan Leaf, 2nd overall 1998, Chargers
It seems patently obvious a quarter-century after the fact, but he was very much in the conversation to be this draft’s No. 1 pick. Of course, the Colts wisely chose eventual five-time MVP Peyton Manning. Meanwhile, the Bolts set themselves back years by taking Leaf (4-14 in 18 starts for the club with a 48.8 passer rating), whose gross immaturity and inability to solve pro defenses trumped his vast physical talent. What cements his infamy is the price San Diego paid to simply swap its initial No. 3 pick to get Arizona’s spot at No. 2 (more on that later). But the freight the Cardinals commanded, aside from the switch, was a second-rounder, an additional first-rounder in 1999 and two veterans (WR Eric Metcalf and LB Patrick Sapp). Oof.

2. OT Tony Mandarich, 2nd overall 1989, Packers
The Sports Illustrated cover boy deemed “The Incredible Bulk” prior to the draft – he had uncommon athleticism and size for the position at the time – was labeled “The NFL’s Incredible Bust” by SI only three years later. Mandarich’s steroid-fueled body and poor work ethic didn’t hold up against professional competition, and he later descended into drug and alcohol abuse. Any value he later provided at guard might have helped the Colts but obviously didn’t do the Pack any good. But this context truly frames his failure: Mandarich was the only player selected in the top five that year who didn’t wind up in the Hall of Fame. Troy Aikman went No. 1, but Green Bay passed on Barry Sanders, Derrick Thomas and Deion Sanders.

3. QB JaMarcus Russell, 1st overall 2007, Raiders
It turned out to be a miserable year for passers, the likes of Brady Quinn, Kevin Kolb, John Beck and Drew Stanton also taken way too early. But Russell, who began his career with a lengthy holdout, never fulfilled the hype generated by his howitzer arm and legendary pro day. He lasted just three seasons, losing 18 of 25 starts and compiling an abysmal 65.2 passer rating, before laziness and weight gain washed him out of the league. Who could Oakland have taken instead? Calvin Johnson, Joe Thomas, Adrian Peterson, Patrick Willis, Marshawn Lynch and Darrelle Revis all came off the board in the first half of Round 1.

4. QB Jeff George, 1st overall 1990, Colts
He looked like Uncle Rico, threw like him, too … and basically played like the “Napoleon Dynamite” folk hero. George forced Indianapolis to surrender Pro Bowl OT Chris Hinton, future Pro Bowl WR Andre Rison and a first-round pick in 1991 to Atlanta – where George wound up himself in 1994 after wearing out his welcome with a bad attitude and 14-35 record for the Colts, who passed on three eventual Hall of Famers in the first round (more on them later). Never particularly popular in the locker room, George played for five different teams – and did post better numbers, if not many more wins, later in his career.

4. QB Jeff George, 1st overall 1990, Colts
He looked like Uncle Rico, threw like him, too … and basically played like the “Napoleon Dynamite” folk hero. George forced Indianapolis to surrender Pro Bowl OT Chris Hinton, future Pro Bowl WR Andre Rison and a first-round pick in 1991 to Atlanta – where George wound up himself in 1994 after wearing out his welcome with a bad attitude and 14-35 record for the Colts, who passed on three eventual Hall of Famers in the first round (more on them later). Never particularly popular in the locker room, George played for five different teams – and did post better numbers, if not many more wins, later in his career.

6. QB Zach Wilson, 2nd overall 2021, Jets

2021, Jets
Brace yourself, NYJ fans, as this is merely the first of many mentions. The New York brain trust won’t admit it publicly, but the Jets are essentially throwing in the towel on Wilson after two seasons given the pivot to four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers. At a time when young quarterbacks are given little margin for error, Wilson, a pro day all-star who’s done little since, used up his – the league’s lowest-rated passer since 2021 among those with at least 100 completions and a subpar podium performer. The mistake is magnified by the fact the Jets could have taken QBs Justin Fields or Mac Jones, if not augment the roster around then-QB Sam Darnold with WR Ja’Marr Chase, OT Penei Sewell or LB Micah Parsons. But maybe Wilson belatedly blossoms a la Geno Smith, another quarterback who quickly flamed out after being drafted by the Jets.

6a. QB Trey Lance, 3rd overall 2021, 49ers
Maybe a premature corollary, but inexperience and injury limited Lance to four starts in his first two seasons – and no guarantee he’ll be the guy in 2023 given the ascent of Brock Purdy, “Mr. Irrelevant” in 2022. Worse, not only did San Francisco pass on the same studs the Jets did, the Niners bartered three first-rounders to get into position for Lance. Soon, he might be dealt.

7. Jets’ decisions to trade down in 1997
After going 1-15 in 1996, Gang Green most definitely earned the No. 1 pick of the ’97 draft – which they surely would have used for Manning … had he opted not to return to the University of Tennessee for his senior year. (And you can argue that newly acquired coach Bill Parcells could have done more to entice Manning to go pro, but that’s neither here nor there.) But after Manning was off the table, Parcells dealt down from No. 1 to No. 6 in a bid to restock this roster, passing on the opportunity to snatch future Hall of Fame LT Orlando Pace. Then Parcells dropped from No. 6 to No. 8, passing on the opportunity to get future Hall of Fame LT Walter Jones. (Ugh and ugh.) LB James Farrior, who was much better in Pittsburgh later in his career than during his Gotham stint, “headlined” New York’s forgettable haul, which could have also included Hall of Fame TE Tony Gonzalez, who went 13th.

8. Colts’ decision to draft John Elway No. 1 in 1983
His talent obviously justified the selection, but team brass should have taken Elway seriously when he threatened to play baseball rather than for Baltimore. In the end, he launched his Hall of Fame career in Denver while the Colts were left with Hinton, backup QB Mark Herrmann, a first-round pick in 1984 (spent on G Ron Solt) and, in a year’s time, a one-way ticket to Indianapolis.

9. QB Robert Griffin III, 2nd overall 2012, Washington
The team shipped three first-round picks and one in Round 2 to the Rams for the chance to take RG3. Initially, it seemed a reasonable gambit as the 2011 Heisman Trophy winner won Offensive Rookie of the Year honors while leading a charge to the NFC East title. The rest is unfortunate history. Washington is still picking up the pieces.